May 5, 2022 02:48 pm JST
Posted in: Japan's child population falls for 41st year to record low See in context
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First: forget the birth rate and look at the birth figures.
It is the birth rate that determines if population increase or not.
If every pair gives birth to 2 children, the population remains same (the same number of parents will be replaced by the same number of children). If the rate is less, the population will decrease; if it is more, the population increase.
Therefore, it is very significant that the birth rate hit the bottom in 2005. And it is growing again ever since. As it becomes closer to 2.0, the population decrease becomes closer to zero (2 older persons get replaced by 2 new persons).
Death rate is not important in the long run since everybody dies. The rapid decrease of Japanese population today is partially due to a Japanese success: a long life expectancy of Japanese people that created a population imbalance with a larger number of elderly people (baby boomers), who are dying. This type of rapid population decrease will stop when all baby boomers pass away, creating a more balanced population map.
