2021年7月6日火曜日

Last 12 Tokyo elections (from 1969 through 2013) before Koike became its Governor in 2016, LDP had been winning 50.7 seats on average.

Last 12 Tokyo elections (from 1969 through 2013) before Koike became its Governor in 2016, LDP had been winning 50.7 seats on average. Then came Koike to become Governor, beating a candidate from LDP hands down. She formed a new local party, "Tomin First," by whom LDP was beaten in a historic defeat in 2017 election. LDP got only 23 seats, down from 59, thanks to Koike's popularity. Now in this year's election, which LDP called "Revenge Election", they did regain the "largest party" title but they are not celebrating. Why? They won only 33 seats which is the second worst result in LDP history (since 1955) and failed to achieve their stated goal: winning majority seats together with Komeito despite the fact that Tomin First Party was not receiving much help form Koike unlike the previous election. All polls before the election showed a poor support for Tomin First Party. Only about 6% to 9% of those who answered said they'd vote for the party. So for example, some predicted that Tomin First would get only about 7 seats. But they won 31 seats, beating everyone's prediction by a wide margin. What these elections showed was that Koike and her party is a real threat to LDP. Hence, LDP is divided: there are people who really want to destroy Koike/Tomin First no matter what but there are those who want to reinstate her as a LDP member (if you cannot beat her, why not become a friend). She will not be easy to handle in either way.

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