ロシア、金利2倍の20%に上げ ルーブル急落で防衛

ロシア、金利2倍の20%に上げ　ルーブル急落で防衛 ウクライナ侵攻 2022年2月28日 16:03 (2022年2月28日 18:16更新) think! 多様な観点からニュースを考える 白井さゆりさん他3名の投稿 白井さゆり滝田洋一梶原誠 27日、サンクトペテルブルクでATMに並ぶ市民=ロイター 【モスクワ=桑本太】ロシア中央銀行は28日、政策金利を従来の9.5%から20%に引き上げると発表した。利上げは11日の金融政策決定会合以来で、2月に入って2回目になる。ウクライナ侵攻による米欧の経済制裁で通貨ルーブルが急落し、28日には過去最安値を更新した。通貨安に伴うインフレ加速を抑えるため、緊急の利上げに踏み切った。 【関連記事】 ・ロシア通貨が3割安　最安値の1ドル=110ルーブル台 ・ロシア大手銀行を国際決済網から排除　米欧、中銀も制裁 ・米欧、劇薬覚悟のロシア包囲網　決済停止で最大級の圧力 政策金利が20%台になるのは2003年以来およそ19年ぶりだ。国際決済銀行（BIS）などによると、アルゼンチンの42.5%に次いで高く、トルコの14%を上回る水準だ。 米欧はロシアの中央銀行にも初めて制裁を科し、外貨準備の取引を制限する厳しい措置を決めた。為替介入が難しくなるとの見方から、28日の外国為替市場では通貨ルーブルが急落。ドルに対しては一時1ドル=120ルーブル近辺と過去最安値を更新した。ロシア中銀の利上げ発表後も、なお安値圏で推移している。 ロシアでは28日、ルーブル安を懸念しドルを早めに手元に確保しようという動きも強まった。週末にはモスクワの都市部など一部のATMには預金を引き出そうと行列ができた。ロシア中央銀行はモスクワ証券取引所の同日の株式取引を終日見送ると発表。3月1日の取引については28日の現地時間午前9時（日本時間午後3時）に方針を公表する。非居住者の証券売却を禁じており、日本からは売却できなくなっている。 すでにロシアのインフレ率は1月時点で8.7%と中銀目標の4.0%を大幅に上回る。エネルギーや食料品価格の高騰に加え、ルーブル安で輸入物価の上昇を通じてインフレに拍車がかかる可能性が高まっている。ロシア中銀は大幅な利上げで通貨安に歯止めをかける狙いだが、急激な利上げは金利上昇を通じて国内経済を冷やす恐れもある。 ロシア財務省とロシア中銀は輸出企業に対し、対外貿易での売上高の80%に相当する外貨を強制的に売却することを義務付けることも決めた。28日から導入する予定で、外貨の売却によりルーブル安を抑える狙いだ。 過去にロシアでは、チェチェン紛争が激化していた1990年代前半に政策金利は210%まで上昇。その後20%台まで下がる局面もあったが、98年には膨張した財政赤字に対処するため150%まで引き上げた。株価、債券、通貨がそろって下落する「トリプル安」に見舞われ、ルーブル危機に陥った。99年にはインフレ率が85%台まで上昇したが、プーチン氏がはじめて大統領に就任した2000年以降は、インフレの抑制に成功している。 今回もプーチン大統領は国民生活を圧迫するインフレを警戒する。ウクライナへの侵攻を決める前の2月17日の政府会合では「インフレ抑制に向けて効果的な対策を講じる必要がある」として政府と中銀の協調を求めていた。 多様な観点からニュースを考える ※掲載される投稿は投稿者個人の見解であり、日本経済新聞社の見解ではありません。 白井さゆりのアバター 白井さゆり 慶應義塾大学総合政策学部　教授 コメントメニュー 分析・考察ロシアの中央銀行が本日すぐ対応したのは当然であろう。ルーブルが対ドルで急落し、2014年のクリミア併合時よりもルーブルの価値は大きく下落している。ロシアへの大規模制裁に躊躇していた欧州連合が思い切って過去最大の厳しい制裁を発動したことが大きい。SWIFTからのロシア大手銀行の除外とロシア中央銀行が西側の中央銀行に預けるドル、ユーロ、ポンドなどの国際通貨とそれらの通貨建て証券を利用できなくしたため、ルーブル防衛手段が政策金利の大幅引き上げしかないからだ。それでもルーブルは大きく下落しインフレは現在9％弱程度だが、今後大きく上昇していくだろう。ロシアの行動は市民と企業に大きな負担を強いている。 2022年2月28日 17:04 (2022年2月28日 20:01更新) いいね 281 滝田洋一のアバター 滝田洋一 日本経済新聞社　編集委員 コメントメニュー ひとこと解説ロシアは制裁慣れしているので、制裁しても効果は小さい。制裁で返り血を浴びるのは西側だーー。そう語っていた「専門家」の見解を改めてうかがいたい気持ちがします。 従来、ロシアが制裁に耐えられたのは、自らに理があると思っていたからこそ。いまやウクライナのロシア軍は、無名の師つまり名分のない戦争の落とし穴にはまりつつあります。 大変な目に遭っているロシア市民。その怒りが政権に向かうと、プーチン政権の足元が揺らぎます。中国の後ろ盾が頼りでしょうが、利にさとい習近平氏のこと。泥舟救済の見返りは、ロシア資源などの差し押さえでしょう。 2022年2月28日 18:05 (2022年2月28日 18:47更新) いいね 179 梶原誠のアバター 梶原誠 日本経済新聞社　本社コメンテーター コメントメニュー ひとこと解説ロシアの軍事的な攻撃に西側が金融戦争で応じる構図です。第２次世界大戦でも米軍がフィリピンで大量の偽札をばらまき、インフレが日本守備隊の物資調達コストを高めて苦しめたことが知られています。このとき日本側は金貨を準備して対応しました。ロシアの人々はルーブル暴落に備え、金ならぬレクサスを買って備えるだろう－－。こんな読みが侵攻前にありました。実際はどうだったのでしょうか。 2022年2月28日 17:46いいね 66 高井宏章のアバター 高井宏章 日本経済新聞社　編集委員 コメントメニュー 分析・考察急激なルーブル安は対ロ経済制裁が大きな効果を上げている証左です。国家と通貨に対する信頼が崩れている現状では利上げの通貨防衛効果は極めて限定的でしょう。 今後、注意すべきは２点。 まず、経済制裁が深刻な打撃となるほど、ロシアにとって軍事行動と変わらない脅威になることです。独裁国家では失脚は指導者にとって生死の分かれ目になりかねない。「逃げ口」がなくなると、プーチン氏が破れかぶれの危険な橋を渡るリスクが高まります。 もう一つは他国への波及。世界の金融システムは網の目のように繫がっています。ロシアの通貨危機が、特に脆弱な新興国に連鎖的なショックをもたらすリスクにも目配りが必要です。 2022年2月28日 17:01

Germany Backs New LNG Plants to Cut Russian Gas Dependence

Germany Backs New LNG Plants to Cut Russian Gas Dependence Scholz says two LNG terminals will be built “quickly” Move comes after Berlin shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline Germany pledged new support for liquefied natural gas terminals, the latest sign it’s willing to retool its energy policy in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Just days after shelving an $11 billion pipeline project to bring Russian gas to Europe, Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Germany would move “quickly” to build two LNG terminals. So far proposed projects have been left to the private sector alone, and are facing headwinds without government support. “The events of the last few days and weeks have shown us that a responsible, forward-looking energy policy is not only crucial for our economy and our climate. But also crucial for our security,” Scholz told the parliament in Berlin on Sunday. “We will change course in order to overcome our import dependency on individual energy suppliers.” The move -- announced as Scholz said he would also bolster defense spending in a dramatic step-change for Germany -- signals that Europe sees the invasion of Ukraine as a turning point and wants to finally address its longstanding addiction to Russian gas. Germany relies on Russia for more than half its natural gas, and a decision to phase out nuclear power before enough renewable capacity has been built to replace it has left the country particularly vulnerable. Share of Natural Gas Imports Coming From Russia, 2020 Sources: Eurostat; U.S. Energy Information Administration Note: Data for 2020 are not available for the U.K. and Bosnia-Herzegovina, 2019 data are shown in those countries. Norway imported 10 million cubic meters of gas from Russia in 2020, but as a net exporter is not dependent on Russian imports Berlin is also bolstering gas and coal storage, and Scholz said the government would push for a faster rollout of renewables too. He didn’t give details of the plan for the LNG plants, but last week the government said it was considering financial support and incentives to drive interest from investors and potential clients. Until now, wild price swing and strict rules have deterred potential clients and investors, and the industry has been asking for help. The energy transition and the fight against climate change also raise the risk that new projects will end up as stranded assets, putting off investors. While several countries are talking up the need to accelerate renewable investments to wean off Russian gas, some of the alternatives being proposed will be even more damaging to the environment. Italy said last week it may re-open coal mines as part of its plan to reduce its dependence on Moscow -- which has even grown in the last decade. — With assistance by Elena Mazneva, Isis Almeida, and Birgit Jennen (adds details)

Germany to Boost Military Spending in Latest Historic Shift

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-27/-putin-s-war-prompts-radical-rethink-for-scholz-and-germany Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced plans for a massive boost in defense spending in the latest historic policy shift in Germany triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Germany will channel 100 billion euros ($113 billion) this year into a fund to modernize the military, Scholz said Sunday in a speech to a special session of the lower house of parliament. By 2024, the government will spend at least 2% of gross domestic product each year on defense, he added, in line with a NATO target that Berlin has consistently failed to meet. Scholz had been widely criticized by opponents and allies alike in recent weeks for what they perceived as dithering and weakness in the face of Russia’s mounting aggression toward Ukraine. In the past few days he has announced a series of radical changes to long-entrenched German policies following the full-scale attack ordered by Russian President Vladimir Putin on the former Soviet republic. Such a wide-ranging rethink from Scholz and his government came unexpectedly and prompted suggestions that Europe’s biggest economy may finally be ready to punch its weight in the international arena, discarding decades of reluctance linked to its role in the 20th century’s bloodiest conflicts. Ukraine’s ambassador to Germany, who was in parliament Sunday, called it a “truly historic moment.” NATO Spending Eleven nations met the guideline of dedicated 2% of economic output to defense Source: North Atlantic Treaty Organization Note: Canada (defense spending: 1.42% of GDP) and U.S. (3.73%) not displayed on map “With the invasion of Ukraine, we are in a new era,” Scholz, the Social Democrat who took over from Angela Merkel in December, told lawmakers. “On Thursday, President Putin created a new reality with his invasion of Ukraine. This new reality requires a clear response. We have given it.” GERMANY’S PIVOT: 100 billion euros for new fund for military spending Annual defense outlays to rise to more than 2% of GDP Work with EU partners to build fighter jets, tanks Purchase armed Heron drones from Israel Increase gas storage volume by 2 billion cubic meters Purchase additional natural gas on the world markets Establish a national coal and gas reserve Build LNG terminals in Brunsbuettel and Wilhelmshaven German defense spending in recent years has been hovering at around 1.5% and actually declined slightly as a share of output last year, according to NATO figures. That has led to criticism that the armed forces are consistently underfunded. Germany has reduced the number of its battle tanks to 300 from 4,700 since 1989 and the number of warplanes to 230 from 390, according to a report in Der Spiegel magazine. The number of troops has dropped to 180,000 from more than 300,000. Friedrich Merz, the leader of Merkel’s Christian Democrats, signaled Sunday in his speech to parliament that the party is ready to work with the ruling coalition on agreeing the financing for the defense fund. As well as ramping up defense spending, Scholz also pledged to do more to protect energy supplies, including increasing gas-storage volume by 2 billion cubic meters, establishing a national coal and gas reserve and swiftly constructing two LNG terminals on the north coast. Read More: Germany Backs New LNG Plants in Bid to Cut Russian Dependence There are signs public opinion is firmly behind the chancellor and his two partners in the ruling coalition -- the Greens, who control the foreign and economy ministries, and the business-friendly Free Democrats, who run the finance ministry. About 100,000 people streamed through the Brandenburg Gate to the central Tiergarten park Sunday for a demonstration in support of Ukraine, according to police estimates. Authorities had expected as many as 20,000. Many had Ukrainian flags and banners calling on Putin to stop the war. Johannes Boie, the editor in chief of influential tabloid Bild, published an editorial entitled “Germany Delivers!” in which he praised the government’s decision to supply Ukraine with weapons. “Our country owes its prosperity, its happiness, to the fact that the Allies once erased our own mass-murdering dictator from the map,” Boie wrote. “Today the government took a first step,” he added. “Slowly, hesitantly, but still. Keep it up - even faster! Even braver!” While Scholz looks to have set aside his preference for circumspection and prudence, at least for the time being, his calm, careful approach has often stood in recent weeks in stark contrast to the two senior Green Party ministers in his government. Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck, who is the economy minister and vice chancellor, have been far more outspoken about the need to confront Russia, particularly on issues like Nord Stream 2. Scholz also had to overcome a degree of reluctance to punish Russia within his own Social Democratic party, which has a long history of sympathy toward Moscow. Baerbock said Sunday that now is the “right moment” for Germany to make what she called a “180-degree turn in foreign policy.” “If our world is different, then our politics must also be different,” she said in a speech to the special session of parliament. “Perhaps it is the case that Germany is today leaving behind a form of special restraint in foreign and security policy,” she added. “In choosing between war and peace -- in choosing between an aggressor and children who have to hide from bombs in subways -- no one can be neutral.” — With assistance by Christoph Rauwald, and Elisabeth Behrmann (Updates crowd size for Berlin protest in 12th paragraph.)

西欧は経済におけるロシアとの相互依存から方向転換を余儀なくされた

冷戦終結後、ロシアはやがて民主化して国政社会の中の普通の一国になる、という夢を西欧は見ていたんですよ。ところが、今回のことで、プーチンが目指しているのは実はかつてのロシア帝国の復活だったことが明確になったわけです。西欧は経済におけるロシアとの相互依存から方向転換を余儀なくされたわけです。

NATO's Eastward Expansion: Did the West Break Its Promise to Moscow?

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-business-europe-european-union-704b3b6678c5d23bd05482c89a0384d2 Zum Inhalt springen International Menü öffnen Menü Startseite International World Russia NATO's Eastward Expansion: Did the West Break Its Promise to Moscow? Suche öffnen NATO's Eastward Expansion Did the West Break Its Promise to Moscow? Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has accused the West of breaking promises made after the fall of the Iron Curtain, saying that NATO's expansion into Eastern Europe violated commitments made during the negotiations over German reunification. Newly discovered documents from Western archives support the Russian position. Von Uwe Klußmann, Matthias Schepp und Klaus Wiegrefe 26.11.2009, 13.50 Uhr Zur Merkliste hinzufügen Link kopieren A Latvian army soldier during a military exercise near Riga. Bild vergrößern A Latvian army soldier during a military exercise near Riga. Foto: INTS KALNINS/ REUTERS No one in Russia can vent his anger over NATO's eastward expansion quite as vehemently as Viktor Baranez. The popular columnist with the tabloid Komsomolskaya Pravda ("Komsomol Truth"), which has a readership of millions, is fond of railing against the "insidious and reckless" Western military alliance. Russia, Baranez writes, must finally stop treating NATO as a partner. ANZEIGE Ein Angebot von Baranez, a retired colonel who was the Defense Ministry's spokesman under former Russian President Boris Yeltsin, asks why Russia should even consider joint maneuvers after being deceived by the West. NATO, he writes, "has pushed its way right up to our national borders with its guns." He also argues that, in doing so, NATO has broken all the promises it made during the process of German reunification. There is widespread agreement among all political parties in Moscow, from the Patriots of Russia to the Communists to Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's United Russia party, that the West broke its word and short-changed Russia when it was weak. In an interview with SPIEGEL at his residence outside Moscow in early November, President Dmitry Medvedev complained that when the Berlin Wall came down, it had "not been possible to redefine Russia's place in Europe." What did Russia get? "None of the things that we were assured, namely that NATO would not expand endlessly eastwards and our interests would be continuously taken into consideration," Medvedev said. Different Versions The question of what Moscow was in fact promised in 1990 has sparked a historical dispute with far-reaching consequences for Russia's future relationship with the West. But what exactly is the truth? The various players involved have different versions of events. Of course there was a promise not to expand NATO "as much as a thumb's width further to the East," Mikhail Gorbachev, the Soviet president at the time, says in Moscow today. However, Gorbachev's former foreign minister, Eduard Shevardnadze, speaking in the Georgian capital Tbilisi, says that there were no such assurances from the West. Even the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact, the Eastern military alliance, "was beyond our imagination," he says. For years former US Secretary of State James Baker, Shevardnadze's American counterpart in 1990, has denied that there was any agreement between the two sides. But Jack Matlock, the US ambassador in Moscow at the time, has said in the past that Moscow was given a "clear commitment." Hans-Dietrich Genscher, the German foreign minister in 1990, says this was precisely not the case. After speaking with many of those involved and examining previously classified British and German documents in detail, SPIEGEL has concluded that there was no doubt that the West did everything it could to give the Soviets the impression that NATO membership was out of the question for countries like Poland, Hungary or Czechoslovakia. On Feb. 10, 1990, between 4 and 6:30 p.m., Genscher spoke with Shevardnadze. According to the German record of the conversation, which was only recently declassified, Genscher said: "We are aware that NATO membership for a unified Germany raises complicated questions. For us, however, one thing is certain: NATO will not expand to the east." And because the conversion revolved mainly around East Germany, Genscher added explicitly: "As far as the non-expansion of NATO is concerned, this also applies in general." Shevardnadze replied that he believed "everything the minister (Genscher) said." Not a Word ANZEIGE The year 1990 was one of major negotiations. Washington, Moscow, London, Bonn, Paris, Warsaw, East Berlin and many others were at odds over German unity, comprehensive European disarmament and a new charter of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe. The Soviets insisted that everything be documented in writing, even when all that was at issue was the fate of Soviet military cemeteries in East Germany. However, the numerous agreements and treaties of the day contained not a single word about NATO expansion in Eastern Europe. For this reason, the West argues, Moscow has no cause for complaint today. After all, the West did not sign anything regarding NATO expansion to the east. But is that tough stance fair? At the beginning of 1990, the Soviet Union was still a world power with troops stationed at the Elbe River, and Hans Modrow, the former Dresden district chairman of the East German Communist Party, the SED, was in charge in East Berlin. But the collapse of the East German state was foreseeable. Bonn's allies in Paris, London and Washington were concerned about the question of whether a unified Germany could be a member of NATO or, as had already happened in the past, would pursue a seesaw policy between east and west. Genscher wanted to put an end to this uncertainty, and he said as much in a major speech to the West on Jan. 31, 1990 in Tutzing, a town in Bavaria. This was the reason, he said, why a unified Germany should be a member of NATO. Moving with Caution But how could the Soviet leadership be persuaded to support this solution? "I wanted to help them over the hurdle," Genscher told SPIEGEL. To that end, the German foreign minister promised, in his speech in Tutzing, that there would not be "an expansion of NATO territory to the east, in other words, closer to the borders of the Soviet Union." East Germany was not to be brought into the military structures of NATO, and the door into the alliance was to remain closed to the countries of Eastern Europe. Genscher remembered what had happened during the 1956 Hungarian revolution. Some of the insurgents had announced their intention to join the Western alliance, giving Moscow the excuse to intervene militarily. In 1990, Genscher was trying to send a signal to Gorbachev that he need not fear such a development in the Soviet bloc. The West, Genscher indicated, intended to cooperate with the Soviet Union in bringing about change, not act as its adversary. The plan that was proclaimed in Tutzing had not been coordinated with the chancellor or West German allies, and Genscher spent the next few days vying for their support. As Genscher's chief of staff Frank Elbe later wrote, the German foreign minister had "moved with the caution of a giant insect that uses its many feelers to investigate its surroundings, prepared to recoil when it encounters resistance." US Secretary of State James Baker, a pragmatic Texan, apparently "warmed to the proposal immediately," says Elbe today. On Feb. 2, the two diplomats sat down in front of the fireplace in Baker's study in Washington, took off their jackets, put their feet up and discussed world events. They quickly agreed that there was to be no NATO expansion to the East. "It was completely clear," Elbe comments. Calming Russian Fears A short time later, then-British Foreign Secretary Douglas Hurd joined the German-American consensus. As a previously unknown document from the German Foreign Ministry shows, Genscher was uncharacteristically open with his relatively pro-German British counterpart when they met in Bonn on Feb. 6, 1990. Hungary was about to hold its first free elections, and Genscher declared that the Soviet Union needed "the certainty that Hungary will not become part of the Western alliance if there is a change of government." The Kremlin, Genscher said, would have to be given assurances to that effect. Hurd agreed. But were such assurances intended to be valid indefinitely? Apparently not. When the two colleagues discussed Poland, Genscher said, according to the British records, that if Poland ever left the Warsaw Pact, Moscow would need the certainty that Warsaw would "not join NATO the next day." However, Genscher did not seem to rule out accession at a later date. It stood to reason that Genscher would present his ideas in Moscow next. He was the longest-serving Western foreign minister, his relationship with Gorbachev and Shevardnadze was unusually strong, and it was his initiative. But Baker wanted to address the issue himself during his next trip to Moscow. 'One Cannot Depend on American Politicians' What the US secretary of state said on Feb. 9, 1990 in the magnificent St. Catherine's Hall at the Kremlin is beyond dispute. There would be, in Baker's words, "no extension of NATO's jurisdiction for forces of NATO one inch to the east," provided the Soviets agreed to the NATO membership of a unified Germany. Moscow would think about it, Gorbachev said, but added: "any extension of the zone of NATO is unacceptable." Now, 20 years later, Gorbachev is still outraged when he is asked about this episode. "One cannot depend on American politicians," he told SPIEGEL. Baker, for his part, now offers a different interpretation of what he said in 1990, arguing that he was merely referring to East Germany, which was to be given a special status in the alliance -- nothing more. But Genscher, in a conversation with Shevardnadze just one day later, had expressly referred to Eastern Europe. In fact, talking about Eastern Europe, and not just East Germany, was consistent with the logic of the West's position. If East Germany was to be granted a special status within NATO, so as not to provoke the Soviet leadership, the promise not to expand the alliance to the east certainly had to include countries like Hungary, Poland and Czechoslovakia, which directly bordered the Soviet Union. When the Western politicians met once again a few weeks later, their conversation was more to the point, as a German Foreign Ministry document that has now been released indicates. According to the document, Baker said that it appeared "as if Central European countries wanted to join NATO." That, Genscher replied, was an issue "we shouldn't touch at this point." Baker agreed. Positive Light The political leaders of the day are now elderly gentlemen who don't necessarily always find it easy to remember exactly what happened back then. Besides, they are all eager to be portrayed in a positive light in the history books. Gorbachev doesn't want to be the one who failed to tightly close the door to the eastward expansion of NATO. Genscher and Baker don't want to be accused of having made deals with Moscow over the heads of the Poles, the Hungarians or the Czechs. And Shevardnadze came to the conclusion long ago that there is "nothing horrible" about NATO expansion -- not surprisingly, given that his native Georgia now wants to join NATO. Their interests were different back in 1990. Bonn and Washington wanted to expedite German reunification. A few days after the talks at the Kremlin, Genscher, Baker and Shevardnadze met again, this time all together and with all of the foreign ministers of the NATO and Warsaw Pact countries present, at a disarmament conference in a converted former train station in the Canadian capital Ottawa. At the conference, the two German foreign ministers (the East German foreign minister at the time was Oskar Fischer, who had been close to the former East German leader Erich Honecker) came together in the corridors and conference rooms, met with the foreign ministers of the four victorious powers in World War II and, in various configurations, discussed the future course of Germany. By the end of the conference, it had been decided that the external aspects of German unity, such as the alliance issue and the size of the German military, were to be resolved in the so-called "two-plus-four" talks. Sounding Out the Soviets Genscher says today that all the key issues should have been addressed in this forum, and that during the talks there was never any mention of excluding the Eastern Europeans from NATO membership, which the participants all confirm. But what about Genscher's comments to Shevardnadze on Feb. 10, 1990? Genscher says today that he was merely "sounding out" Shevardnadze prior to the actual negotiations to determine Moscow's position on the alliance issue and to see whether there was any leeway. This is the official position. But there are also other versions of the events. A diplomat with the German Foreign Ministry says that there was, of course, a consensus between the two sides. Indeed, the Soviets would hardly have agreed to take part in the two-plus-four talks if they had known that NATO would later accept Poland, Hungary and other Eastern European countries as members. The negotiations with Gorbachev were already difficult enough, with Western politicians repeatedly insisting that they were not going to derive -- in the words of then-US President George H. W. Bush -- any "unilateral advantage" from the situation, and that there would be "no shift in the balance of power" between the East and the West, as Genscher put it. Russia today is certainly somewhat justified in citing, at the very least, the spirit of the 1990 agreements. Absurd Notion In late May 1990, Gorbachev finally agreed to a unified Germany joining NATO. But why didn't Gorbachev and Shevardnadze get the West's commitments in writing at a time when they still held all the cards? "The Warsaw Pact still existed at the beginning of 1990," Gorbachev says today. "Merely the notion that NATO might expand to include the countries in this alliance sounded completely absurd at the time." Some leading Western politicians were under the impression that the Kremlin leader and his foreign minister were ignoring reality and, as Baker said, were "in denial" about the demise of the Soviet Union as a major power. On the other hand, the Baltic countries were still part of the Soviet Union, and NATO membership seemed light years away. And in some parts of Eastern Europe, peace-oriented dissidents were now in power, men like then-Czech President Vaclav Havel who, if he had had his way, would not only have dissolved the Warsaw Pact, but NATO along with it. No Eastern European government was striving to join NATO in that early phase, and the Western alliance had absolutely no interest in taking on new members. It was too expensive, an unnecessary provocation of Moscow and, if worse came to worst, did the Western governments truly expect French, Italian or German soldiers to risk their lives for Poland and Hungary? Then, in 1991, came the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the war in Bosnia, with its hundred thousand dead, raised fears of a Balkanization of Eastern Europe. And in the United States President Bill Clinton, following his inauguration in 1993, was searching for a new mission for the Western alliance. Suddenly everyone wanted to join NATO, and soon NATO wanted to accept everyone. The dispute over history was about to begin. 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【馬渕睦夫】プーチン大統領がウクライナ国境付近に軍隊を集結？

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TnURoYq33Q8 ２０２２年２月１８日放送（＃７２） プーチン大統領がウクライナ国境付近に軍を集結させている理由なんですが、それは何ともわかりません、どういう理由なのか。 しかも、集結させているというのはずっと言われてますけど、これが証拠だという写真もあるんですが、本当にそれがウクライナ国境に集結している攻撃部隊を伴ったロシア軍なのかどうかは検証されてないんですね、ええ。これも半分ぐらいはフェイクニュースの可能性もあるんだろうとわたしは思っております。 とにかく、プーチンがなんらかの軍隊といいますか、防備を備えなければならないとすれば、ウクライナからの挑発に備えたというふうに考えられるのではないかと思います。

西欧文明は国家の独立と個人の自由を求め続ける。しかし、プーチンも習近平も古典的帝国主義の復活を夢みている。

短期的にはともかく、長い目で見ると、今回のロシアの行動がヨーロッパ側にとってよかったと思えるところがひとつあります。 それは、ロシアの本性が見える化したことによって、これまであやふやだった冷戦以降のNATOの存在意義が明確になったこと。もう誰の目にも、いかにNATOが重要であるかということは明らかになったと思う。これから、ヨーロッパはより一層一体化し、NATOの軍事力は増強されていくことになることが予想されます。要するに、ソ連崩壊後のロシアは自然に民主主義国家に移行し、世界の中の普通の国の一つになるだろう、という甘い夢ははかなくも崩壊した、ということですね。 これは最近のアメリカの対中国方針の転換にも通じるところがあります。鄧小平の資本主義投入から胡錦涛政権に至るまで、アメリカは中国に対して融和政策を行ってきました。アメリカも中国はやがて民主国に移行するであろうという甘い夢を見ていたからです。しかしその夢は習近平政権の出現によって儚く崩壊した。中国は世界の中の普通の一国なろうとしていたのではなく、世界覇者になろうとしていたからです。 西欧文明は国家の独立と個人の自由を求め続ける。しかし、プーチンも習近平も古典的帝国主義の復活を夢みている。 プーチンと習近平の歴史的意義とはそういうことですが、果たして日本は「経済協力すれば北方領土返還もかなうだろう」とか「仲よくすれば中国もわかってくれるだろう」という夢から覚めることができるのでしょうか。自分は何もしなくても「アメリカが日本を守ってくれる」という夢から覚めることができるのでしょうか。