2022年10月18日火曜日

Musk’s role in Ukraine

Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine is not going to plan, and the Russian president may be enlisting the help of the world’s richest man to see the conflict end on his terms.


Earlier this month, Tesla CEO Elon Musk shared his opinion on how the Ukraine War could end. In a tweet, he argued that recent elections in the Russian-annexed regions of eastern Ukraine that were widely described as a sham should be redone with international oversight, and that Ukraine should permanently cede ownership of the Crimean Peninsula, a territory that Russia forcibly absorbed in 2014.

Musk’s proposal was condemned by Ukrainian diplomats and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who implied Musk’s stance was pro-Russia. The Kremlin, meanwhile, was more forgiving of Musk, with government spokesman Dmitry Peskov later saying it was “very positive that such a person as Elon Musk is trying to look for a peaceful settlement.” 

But Musk’s formula for peace in Ukraine, and other comments the billionaire has made in recent months, may be part of a larger ploy by Putin to have his terms known to the international community, according to Fiona Hill, a top Russia diplomat during the Trump administration.

“It’s very clear that Elon Musk is transmitting a message for Putin,” Hill said in an interview with Politico published on Monday.

“Putin plays the egos of big men, gives them a sense that they can play a role. But in reality, they’re just direct transmitters of messages from Vladimir Putin.”


Musk’s role in Ukraine

Musk has played an active role in the Ukraine War so far, receiving plaudits from the international community after his company, SpaceXdelivered Starlink internet terminals to Ukraine shortly after the war began. The satellite internet access has proved invaluable to the Ukrainian military.

 Musk has since gotten himself into hot water over Ukraine, however. He reportedly asked the Pentagon last week to foot the Starlink bill in Ukraine, saying it was “unreasonable” to expect SpaceX to continue covering most of the cost of the internet service. 

Musk appeared to have changed his mind by the next day. “The hell with it,” he wrote on Twitter, announcing that SpaceX would continue to do “good deeds” while operating on a loss in Ukraine.

But with his recent statements and peace formula for Ukraine, Musk’s new role in the war may be as one of Putin’s “intermediaries,” according to Hill.

“This is a classic Putin play,” Hill said. “Putin does this frequently. He uses prominent people as intermediaries to feel out the general political environment, to basically test how people are going to react to ideas.”

In his proposed peace plan, Musk wrote that water supply to Crimea must be assured in any resolution. The Crimean Peninsula has no major rivers and relies on water supply from the currently annexed Kherson region to the north, Hill explained, a point so obscure it suggests Musk may be speaking for Putin.

“It’s unlikely Elon Musk knows about this himself. The reference to water is so specific that this clearly is a message from Putin,” she said.

Hill referenced an instance from last month, when Musk proposed the same peace plan to attendees at a festival in Aspen, as further evidence of his connection to Putin. At the festival, Musk argued that the eastern provinces of Ukraine could become “quasi-independent” republics and permit water supply to keep flowing to Crimea, CNN reported from attendee testimonies. One attendee reportedly said it was “clear” that Musk had been in communication with the Kremlin, based on his statements.

Last week, Ian Bremmer, a political scientist and founder of research firm Eurasia Group, alleged in a tweet that Musk had spoken with him directly about his conversations with Putin over the fate of Ukraine and what Putin’s terms for peace would be. Bremmer did not say when the reported conversation had taken place.

Musk has yet to respond to Hill’s accusation that he is repeating Putin’s talking points, but in response to a tweet referencing Bremmer’s allegations, Musk denied the claims, saying he has not spoken to Putin in 18 months.

Putin’s playbook

Putin may be eager to find alternative avenues to end the war on his own terms as the conflict has so far not been going well for him, according to Hill. The war is now entering its eighth month, and Ukrainian forces have made steady progress in reclaiming Russian-annexed land in the east of the country. 

The prospect of a drawn-out engagement has pushed Putin to authorize the mobilization of hundreds of thousands of additional troops, and the Russian president has not shied away from making nuclear threats either

Enlisting the help of Musk and more threats of escalation may be an essential part of Putin’s playbook at this stage of the conflict, according to Hill.

“Putin is obviously hoping that now, with all of the nuclear saber-rattling, threats of nuclear Armageddon, deploying Elon Musk and others to convey his messages, that basically he can take the territory that he’s got and get recognition of that,” she said.

https://fortune.com/2022/10/17/elon-musk-ukraine-peace-transmitting-russian-messages-fiona-hill-vladimir-putin/


2022年10月17日月曜日

円安は悪か

 過去に比べて円安メリットが減っていると言われている。欧米との貿易摩擦が起きた1980年代から90年代初頭に比べて現在は、海外での現地生産や海外からの部品調達の比率が増えている。そのため円安効果が減少しているというのだ。また輸入に頼るエネルギーなどの資源や食料品の高騰が円安メリットを減殺する。

過去の為替介入

 https://dot.asahi.com/aera/2022100400017.html?page=1



本多佑三・大阪学院大学教授(大阪大学名誉教授)は9月13日付の経済教室を「現在の日本の政策当局の限られた手段を考慮したとき、米国の金融引き締めによる円安は日本経済を成長軌道に乗せる絶好のチャンスでもある」と締めくくった。本多氏は日本経済学会会長や日本銀行金融研究所顧問などを歴任した経済学者である。

 少し前だが2月にも、第一生命経済研究所の永濱利廣首席エコノミストは「円安悪玉論の誤解」というレポートを書いている。当時は1ドル=115円程度だったが、いずれ120円を割る円安に進むとみられていた時期で、「円安悪玉論」に牽制球を投げた形だった。

永濱氏は「円安はメリットの方が大きい。マクロ計量モデルをみると、内閣府や日銀等の全てのモデルで円安が実質GDPの増加に寄与。(日本は)経常収支も黒字であり、円安は所得の押し上げ要因になる」と指摘した。

(経済ジャーナリスト・安井孝之)


円安とGDP




https://www.bloomberg.co.jp/news/articles/2022-10-15/RJSU3HT1UM0W01



https://www.macrotrends.net/2550/dollar-yen-exchange-rate-historical-chart






2022年10月15日土曜日

Tesla market share

 https://cleantechnica.com/files/2022/09/Tesla-Market-Share-Troy-Teslike.png



2022年10月13日木曜日

為替介入の成果がはっきり出ている

 政府の為替介入以前の1か月間の円安スピードは8.5%(133.43円から1か月間で11円安)でした。介入後1か月間の円安速度は1.4%(144.82円から1か月間で2円安)でした。つまり、月間レベルで介入前後を比べると円安のスピードがあきらかに減速しています。その意味で為替介入の成果がはっきり出ていると言えます。

為替介入は「急激な変化」(速度の急変化)に対応するという大義からいえば、いまのところ再び介入する理由はないと思われます。(個人的には、財務省も日銀も「ゆるやか」でさえあれば円安傾向はむしろ望ましいと考えている、と思っています。)

為替介入によって円安傾向は減速した(8月から9月(介入直前)までは8.5%上昇、9月から10月までは1.4%)

8/13 - 9/13: 144.82-133.43 = 11.39 (8.5%)

Tuesday 13 September 20221 USD = 144.82 JPY

Saturday 13 August 20221 USD = 133.43 


9/13 - 10/13: 147-144=3 (1.4%)





Tuesday 11 October 20221 USD = 145.81 JPYUSD JPY rate for 11/10/2022Monday 10 October 20221 USD = 145.68 JPYUSD JPY rate for 10/10/2022Sunday 9 October 20221 USD = 145.39 JPYUSD JPY rate for 09/10/2022Saturday 8 October 20221 USD = 145.37 JPYUSD JPY rate for 08/10/2022Friday 7 October 20221 USD = 145.35 JPYUSD JPY rate for 07/10/2022Thursday 6 October 20221 USD = 145.03 JPYUSD JPY rate for 06/10/2022Wednesday 5 October 20221 USD = 144.50 JPYUSD JPY rate for 05/10/2022Tuesday 4 October 20221 USD = 144.17 JPYUSD JPY rate for 04/10/2022Monday 3 October 20221 USD = 144.54 JPYUSD JPY rate for 03/10/2022Sunday 2 October 20221 USD = 144.76 JPYUSD JPY rate for 02/10/2022Saturday 1 October 20221 USD = 144.74 JPYUSD JPY rate for 01/10/2022Friday 30 September 20221 USD = 145.03 JPYUSD JPY rate for 30/09/2022Thursday 29 September 20221 USD = 144.41 JPYUSD JPY rate for 29/09/2022Wednesday 28 September 20221 USD = 144.25 JPYUSD JPY rate for 28/09/2022Tuesday 27 September 20221 USD = 144.81 JPYUSD JPY rate for 27/09/2022Monday 26 September 20221 USD = 144.61 JPYUSD JPY rate for 26/09/2022Sunday 25 September 20221 USD = 143.46 JPYUSD JPY rate for 25/09/2022Saturday 24 September 20221 USD = 143.38 JPYUSD JPY rate for 24/09/2022Friday 23 September 20221 USD = 143.34 JPYUSD JPY rate for 23/09/2022Thursday 22 September 20221 USD = 142.43 JPYUSD JPY rate for 22/09/2022Wednesday 21 September 20221 USD = 144.43 JPYUSD JPY rate for 21/09/2022Tuesday 20 September 20221 USD = 143.67 JPYUSD JPY rate for 20/09/2022Monday 19 September 20221 USD = 143.22 JPYUSD JPY rate for 19/09/2022Sunday 18 September 20221 USD = 142.86 JPYUSD JPY rate for 18/09/2022Saturday 17 September 20221 USD = 142.96 JPYUSD JPY rate for 17/09/2022Friday 16 September 20221 USD = 142.93 JPYUSD JPY rate for 16/09/2022Thursday 15 September 20221 USD = 143.37 JPYUSD JPY rate for 15/09/2022Wednesday 14 September 20221 USD = 143.03 JPYUSD JPY rate for 14/09/2022Tuesday 13 September 20221 USD = 144.82 JPYUSD JPY rate for 13/09/2022Monday 12 September 20221 USD = 142.73 JPYUSD JPY rate for 12/09/2022Sunday 11 September 20221 USD = 142.64 JPYUSD JPY rate for 11/09/2022Saturday 10 September 20221 USD = 142.51 JPYUSD JPY rate for 10/09/2022Friday 9 September 20221 USD = 142.55 JPYUSD JPY rate for 09/09/2022Thursday 8 September 20221 USD = 144.02 JPYUSD JPY rate for 08/09/2022Wednesday 7 September 20221 USD = 144.07 JPYUSD JPY rate for 07/09/2022Tuesday 6 September 20221 USD = 143.30 JPYUSD JPY rate for 06/09/2022Monday 5 September 20221 USD = 140.46 JPYUSD JPY rate for 05/09/2022Sunday 4 September 20221 USD = 140.33 JPYUSD JPY rate for 04/09/2022Saturday 3 September 20221 USD = 140.20 JPYUSD JPY rate for 03/09/2022Friday 2 September 20221 USD = 140.15 JPYUSD JPY rate for 02/09/2022Thursday 1 September 20221 USD = 140.19 JPYUSD JPY rate for 01/09/2022Wednesday 31 August 20221 USD = 139.05 JPYUSD JPY rate for 31/08/2022Tuesday 30 August 20221 USD = 138.79 JPYUSD JPY rate for 30/08/2022Monday 29 August 20221 USD = 138.69 JPYUSD JPY rate for 29/08/2022Sunday 28 August 20221 USD = 137.87 JPYUSD JPY rate for 28/08/2022Saturday 27 August 20221 USD = 137.56 JPYUSD JPY rate for 27/08/2022Friday 26 August 20221 USD = 137.66 JPYUSD JPY rate for 26/08/2022Thursday 25 August 20221 USD = 136.52 JPYUSD JPY rate for 25/08/2022Wednesday 24 August 20221 USD = 137.06 JPYUSD JPY rate for 24/08/2022Tuesday 23 August 20221 USD = 136.67 JPYUSD JPY rate for 23/08/2022Monday 22 August 20221 USD = 137.44 JPYUSD JPY rate for 22/08/2022Sunday 21 August 20221 USD = 136.99 JPYUSD JPY rate for 21/08/2022Saturday 20 August 20221 USD = 136.89 JPYUSD JPY rate for 20/08/2022Friday 19 August 20221 USD = 136.86 JPYUSD JPY rate for 19/08/2022Thursday 18 August 20221 USD = 135.87 JPYUSD JPY rate for 18/08/2022Wednesday 17 August 20221 USD = 135.09 JPYUSD JPY rate for 17/08/2022Tuesday 16 August 20221 USD = 134.29 JPYUSD JPY rate for 16/08/2022Monday 15 August 20221 USD = 133.15 JPYUSD JPY rate for 15/08/2022Sunday 14 August 20221 USD = 133.51 JPYUSD JPY rate for 14/08/2022Saturday 13 August 20221 USD = 133.43 JPYUSD JPY rate for 13/08/2022Friday 12 August 20221 USD = 133.43 JPYUSD JPY rate for 12/08/2022Thursday 11 August 20221 USD = 132.96 JPYUSD JPY rate for 11/08/2022Wednesday 10 August 20221 USD = 132.83 JPYUSD JPY rate for 10/08/2022Tuesday 9 August 20221 USD = 135.08 JPYUSD JPY rate for 09/08/2022Monday 8 August 20221 USD = 135.00 JPYUSD JPY rate for 08/08/2022Sunday 7 August 20221 USD = 135.11 JPYUSD JPY rate for 07/08/2022Saturday 6 August 20221 USD = 135.00 JPYUSD JPY rate for 06/08/2022Friday 5 August 20221 USD = 134.93 JPYUSD JPY rate for 05/08/2022Thursday 4 August 20221 USD = 133.34 JPYUSD JPY rate for 04/08/2022Wednesday 3 August 20221 USD = 133.95 JPYUSD JPY rate for 03/08/2022Tuesday 2 August 20221 USD = 132.98 JPYUSD JPY rate for 02/08/2022Monday 1 August 20221 USD = 131.67 JPYUSD JPY rate for 01/08/2022Sunday 31 July 20221 USD = 133.32 JPYUSD JPY rate for 31/07/2022Saturday 30 July 20221 USD = 133.21 JPYUSD JPY rate for 30/07/2022Friday 29 July 20221 USD = 133.21 JPYUSD JPY rate for 29/07/2022Thursday 28 July 20221 USD = 134.35 JPYUSD JPY rate for 28/07/2022Wednesday 27 July 20221 USD = 136.53 JPYUSD JPY rate for 27/07/2022Tuesday 26 July 20221 USD = 136.85 JPYUSD JPY rate for 26/07/2022Monday 25 July 20221 USD = 136.57 JPYUSD JPY rate for 25/07/2022Sunday 24 July 20221 USD = 136.28 JPYUSD JPY rate for 24/07/2022Saturday 23 July 20221 USD = 136.18 JPYUSD JPY rate for 23/07/2022Friday 22 July 20221 USD = 136.24 JPYUSD JPY rate for 22/07/2022Thursday 21 July 20221 USD = 137.45 JPYUSD JPY rate for 21/07/2022Wednesday 20 July 20221 USD = 138.26 JPYUSD JPY rate for 20/07/2022Tuesday 19 July 20221 USD = 138.16 JPYUSD JPY rate for 19/07/2022Monday 18 July 20221 USD = 138.23 JPYUSD JPY rate for 18/07/2022Sunday 17 July 20221 USD = 138.46 JPYUSD JPY rate for 17/07/2022Saturday 16 July 20221 USD = 138.54 JPYUSD JPY rate for 16/07/2022Friday 15 July 20221 USD = 138.50 JPYUSD JPY rate for 15/07/2022Thursday 14 July 20221 USD = 139.02 JPYUSD JPY rate for 14/07/2022Wednesday 13 July 20221 USD = 137.43 JPYUSD JPY rate for 13/07/2022Tuesday 12 July 20221 USD = 136.86 JPYUSD JPY rate for 12/07/2022Monday 11 July 20221 USD = 137.37 JPYUSD JPY rate for 11/07/2022Sunday 10 July 20221 USD = 136.14 JPYUSD JPY rate for 10/07/2022Saturday 9 July 20221 USD = 136.10 JPYUSD JPY rate for 09/07/2022Friday 8 July 20221 USD = 136.10 JPYUSD JPY rate for 08/07/2022Thursday 7 July 20221 USD = 136.01 JPYUSD JPY rate for 07/07/2022Wednesday 6 July 20221 USD = 135.89 JPYUSD JPY rate for 06/07/2022Tuesday 5 July 20221 USD = 135.73 JPYUSD JPY rate for 05/07/2022Monday 4 July 20221 USD = 135.70 JPYUSD JPY rate for 04/07/2022Sunday 3 July 20221 USD = 135.16 JPYUSD JPY rate for 03/07/2022Saturday 2 July 20221 USD = 135.22 JPYUSD JPY rate for 02/07/2022Friday 1 July 20221 USD = 135.22 JPYUSD JPY rate for 01/07/2022Thursday 30 June 20221 USD = 135.73 JPYUSD JPY rate for 30/06/2022Wednesday 29 June 20221 USD = 136.55 JPYUSD JPY rate for 29/06/2022Tuesday 28 June 20221 USD = 136.14 JPYUSD JPY rate for 28/06/2022Monday 27 June 20221 USD = 135.36 JPYUSD JPY rate for 27/06/2022Sunday 26 June 20221 USD = 135.09 JPYUSD JPY rate for 26/06/2022Saturday 25 June 20221 USD = 135.20 JPYUSD JPY rate for 25/06/2022Friday 24 June 20221 USD = 135.20 JPYUSD JPY rate for 24/06/2022Thursday 23 June 20221 USD = 134.87 JPYUSD JPY rate for 23/06/2022Wednesday 22 June 20221 USD = 136.14 JPYUSD JPY rate for 22/06/2022Tuesday 21 June 20221 USD = 136.49 JPYUSD JPY rate for 21/06/2022Monday 20 June 20221 USD = 135.10 JPYUSD JPY rate for 20/06/2022Sunday 19 June 20221 USD = 135.19 JPYUSD JPY rate for 19/06/2022Saturday 18 June 20221 USD = 134.99 JPYUSD JPY rate for 18/06/2022Friday 17 June 20221 USD = 134.96 JPYUSD JPY rate for 17/06/2022Thursday 16 June 20221 USD = 132.65 JPYUSD JPY rate for 16/06/2022Wednesday 15 June 20221 USD = 134.17 JPYUSD JPY rate for 15/06/2022Tuesday 14 June 20221 USD = 135.43 JPYUSD JPY rate for 14/06/2022Monday 13 June 20221 USD = 134.30 JPYUSD JPY rate for 13/06/2022Sunday 12 June 20221 USD = 134.68 JPYUSD JPY rate for 12/06/2022Saturday 11 June 20221 USD = 134.42 JPYUSD JPY rate for 11/06/2022Friday 10 June 20221 USD = 134.39 JPYUSD JPY rate for 10/06/2022Thursday 9 June 20221 USD = 134.47 JPYUSD JPY rate for 09/06/2022Wednesday 8 June 20221 USD = 134.41 JPYUSD JPY rate for 08/06/2022Tuesday 7 June 20221 USD = 132.67 JPYUSD JPY rate for 07/06/2022Monday 6 June 20221 USD = 131.93 JPYUSD JPY rate for 06/06/2022Sunday 5 June 20221 USD = 130.82 JPYUSD JPY rate for 05/06/2022Saturday 4 June 20221 USD = 130.85 JPYUSD JPY rate for 04/06/2022Friday 3 June 20221 USD = 130.82 JPYUSD JPY rate for 03/06/2022Thursday 2 June 20221 USD = 129.87 JPYUSD JPY rate for 02/06/2022Wednesday 1 June 20221 USD = 130.12 JPYUSD JPY rate for 01/06/2022Tuesday 31 May 20221 USD = 128.74 JPYUSD JPY rate for 31/05/2022Monday 30 May 20221 USD = 127.61 JPYUSD JPY rate for 30/05/2022Sunday 29 May 20221 USD = 127.20 JPYUSD JPY rate for 29/05/2022Saturday 28 May 20221 USD = 127.10 JPYUSD JPY rate for 28/05/2022Friday 27 May 20221 USD = 127.11 JPYUSD JPY rate for 27/05/2022Thursday 26 May 20221 USD = 127.05 JPYUSD JPY rate for 26/05/2022Wednesday 25 May 20221 USD = 127.23 JPYUSD JPY rate for 25/05/2022Tuesday 24 May 20221 USD = 126.80 JPYUSD JPY rate for 24/05/2022Monday 23 May 20221 USD = 127.86 JPYUSD JPY rate for 23/05/2022Sunday 22 May 20221 USD = 127.96 JPYUSD JPY rate for 22/05/2022Saturday 21 May 20221 USD = 127.87 JPYUSD JPY rate for 21/05/2022Friday 20 May 20221 USD = 127.87 JPYUSD JPY rate for 20/05/2022Thursday 19 May 20221 USD = 127.74 JPYUSD JPY rate for 19/05/2022Wednesday 18 May 20221 USD = 128.30 JPYUSD JPY rate for 18/05/2022Tuesday 17 May 20221 USD = 129.41 JPYUSD JPY rate for 17/05/2022Monday 16 May 20221 USD = 129.01 JPYUSD JPY rate for 16/05/2022Sunday 15 May 20221 USD = 129.44 JPYUSD JPY rate for 15/05/2022Saturday 14 May 20221 USD = 129.20 JPYUSD JPY rate for 14/05/2022Friday 13 May 20221 USD = 129.26 JPYUSD JPY rate for 13/05/2022Thursday 12 May 20221 USD = 128.48 JPYUSD JPY rate for 12/05/2022Wednesday 11 May 20221 USD = 129.90 JPYUSD JPY rate for 11/05/2022Tuesday 10 May 20221 USD = 130.35 JPYUSD JPY rate for 10/05/2022Monday 9 May 20221 USD = 130.47 JPYUSD JPY rate for 09/05/2022Sunday 8 May 20221 USD = 130.68 JPYUSD JPY rate for 08/05/2022Saturday 7 May 20221 USD = 130.54 JPYUSD JPY rate for 07/05/2022Friday 6 May 20221 USD = 130.58 JPYUSD JPY rate for 06/05/2022Thursday 5 May 20221 USD = 130.11 JPYUSD JPY rate for 05/05/2022Wednesday 4 May 20221 USD = 129.49 JPYUSD JPY rate for 04/05/2022Tuesday 3 May 20221 USD = 130.10 JPYUSD JPY rate for 03/05/2022Monday 2 May 20221 USD = 130.16 JPYUSD JPY rate for 02/05/2022Sunday 1 May 20221 USD = 130.09 JPYUSD JPY rate for 01/05/2022Saturday 30 April 20221 USD = 129.85 JPYUSD JPY rate for 30/04/2022Friday 29 April 20221 USD = 129.85 JPYUSD JPY rate for 29/04/2022Thursday 28 April 20221 USD = 130.88 JPYUSD JPY rate for 28/04/2022Wednesday 27 April 20221 USD = 128.53 JPYUSD JPY rate for 27/04/2022Tuesday 26 April 20221 USD = 127.07 JPYUSD JPY rate for 26/04/2022Monday 25 April 20221 USD = 128.01 JPYUSD JPY rate for 25/04/2022Sunday 24 April 20221 USD = 128.77 JPYUSD JPY rate for 24/04/2022Saturday 23 April 20221 USD = 128.48 JPYUSD JPY rate for 23/04/2022Friday 22 April 20221 USD = 128.45 JPYUSD JPY rate for 22/04/2022Thursday 21 April 20221 USD = 128.33 JPYUSD JPY rate for 21/04/2022Wednesday 20 April 20221 USD = 127.99 JPYUSD JPY rate for 20/04/2022Tuesday 19 April 20221 USD = 129.30 JPYUSD JPY rate for 19/04/2022Monday 18 April 20221 USD = 127.06 JPYUSD JPY rate for 18/04/2022Sunday 17 April 20221 USD = 126.56 JPYUSD JPY rate for 17/04/2022Saturday 16 April 20221 USD = 126.44 JPYUSD JPY rate for 16/04/2022Friday 15 April 20221 USD = 126.44 JPY


https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/USD-JPY-exchange-rate-history.html


日米共同声明に抗議 日本公使に「強烈な不満」表明―中国

 https://www.jiji.com/jc/article?k=2025021000786&g=int 日米共同声明に抗議 日本公使に「強烈な不満」表明―中国 時事通信 外信部 2025年02月10日19時18分 配信 中国外務省=北京(AFP時事)  【北京時事】...