ハロウィンがコスプレの祝日（言い訳）になった

コスプレはもともと日本の文化であって、たまたま表面上ハロウィンがそれに似ているので、ハロウィンがコスプレの祝日（言い訳）になった、とぼくは理解している。もう日本のお祭りの一つになったと言っていいと思うよ。

物価3%で円安も150円台、日銀が動かない理由は？

https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUB284SV0Y2A021C2000000/?unlock=1

 

日銀は27～28日の金融政策決定会合で大規模緩和の現状維持を決めました。9月の消費者物価指数（CPI、生鮮食品除く）は前年同月比で3.0%の上昇率となり、日銀が目標とする2%を大きく上回りました。悲願の2%を達成したのに日銀が動かないのは「物価上昇は一時的」とみているからです。

実際、日銀が決定会合後に公表した「経済・物価情勢の展望（展望リポート）」からは、2023年度のインフレ率を1.6%とみていることがわかります。日本経済研究センターの調査でも、民間エコノミスト36人の予測は同1.25%で、足元の物価上昇は「原油価格の高騰による一時的なもの」との見方が現時点では大勢のようです。

日銀が利上げに転じれば、住宅ローン金利も上がって家計には重荷となります。中小企業は新型コロナウイルス危機下で積み増した借金を抱えたままです。政府財政も利払い負担が重くなるでしょう。日銀の利上げだけで世界的な原油高やドル高を抑えられるわけではなく、じっと動かない日銀の判断にも合理性はあります。

本心は「最後の好機」とみている？

もっとも多くの日銀関係者に聞いてみると、動かない理由はもう少し深いようです。「黒田日銀は足元の物価高を、長年のゼロインフレから脱するラストチャンスとみている」との指摘が多く上がりました。どういう意味なのでしょうか。

歴史を振り返ると日本のインフレ率は、1990年代後半からほぼゼロで止まってしまいました。銀行危機が深刻だった98年を起点とすると、2021年までの20年強でCPIはわずか1.1%しか上昇していません。1998年までの20年間で1.5倍も上昇したのと対照的です。

これだけ長くゼロインフレが続くと、生活者心理として物価が上がらないのが当たり前になってきます。米欧では交通運賃や公共料金ですら頻繁に上がりますが、ゼロインフレが当たり前の日本では大騒ぎになるので、簡単に値上げできなくなります。日銀はこれを「ゼロインフレのノルム（社会通念）」と言っています。

一方で足元のインフレが長く続けば、このノルムを吹き飛ばす材料になる可能性があります。食品などの相次ぐ値上げで、今では生活者の多くは「ゼロインフレが当たり前」とは少しずつ思わなくなってきました。円安は外国人旅行客を呼び込んで宿泊や飲食のニーズを増やす効果もあり、サービス産業の賃上げに直結するかもしれません。日銀は金融緩和を維持することで、こうした好循環を期待しているようです。

物価高と円安を日銀が放置することにはリスクもあります。円安の一因は日銀の緩和維持による日米金利差にあります。円安が一段と進んで企業や生活者のコスト高が強まれば、2%インフレが定着する前に日本経済が減速してしまう懸念が出てきます。ゼロインフレのノルムを吹き飛ばすという発想は、一種の賭けと言えるかもしれません。

日銀が引きずる過去のトラウマ

日銀が動かない理由として、もう少し後ろ向きな話も漏れてきます。それは過去のトラウマです。日銀は黒田総裁が就任する前、デフレを引き起こしたとして政界から厳しく批判されました。そのやり玉に挙がったのが、2000年のゼロ金利解除と、06年の量的緩和解除です。いずれも解除後に結果的には再びインフレ率がマイナス圏に戻ってしまい「拙速な緩和縮小」と指弾の材料になりました。

足元でみても、世界経済は米欧の急激な金融引き締めで23年にも景気後退に突入するリスクがあります。世界的な景気悪化が起きれば日本経済も影響は避けられず、そんな間際に日銀が緩和縮小に転じれば「拙速な引き締め」と非難されるのは必至でしょう。トラウマからくる組織防衛の意識も、日銀の判断を縛る材料になっているようです。

もっとも、世界的な景気悪化が発生すれば次なる問題が持ち上がります。米欧は金融引き締めから再び金融緩和に転じるでしょう。米連邦準備理事会（FRB）も欧州中央銀行（ECB）も22年の大幅利上げで、次なる危機に備える利下げ余地を獲得しました。一方の日銀は利下げ余地がないままで、次なる景気悪化の影響を和らげる力がありません。外国為替相場も今度は大幅な円高になる可能性があります。

景気が安定すれば金利を緩やかに引き上げておき、景気悪化時に果敢に利下げに転じる。金融政策とは本来、こうした柔軟性と機動性が最大の武器だったはずです。「動かない日銀」の大きな問題は、次なる景気悪化に備える余力を持てないことにありそうです。

（金融部長　河浪武史）

「為替介入は広く行われており、政策ツールとして有効である。成功率はおよそ８０％にも上る」

https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/mac.20150317 

『アメリカンエコノミックジャーナル：マクロ経済』誌の２０１９年号に発表された論文「為替介入はどんな時に有効かー３３か国からのエビデンス」という論文では、「為替介入は広く行われており、政策ツールとして有効である。成功率はおよそ８０％にも上る」と結論しています。

ここで「成功」と言っているのは「為替レートの変動を鎮静化（stabilize）させること」です。財務省や日銀が為替介入の理由について必ず発言していることは「急激な変動」への対応ですが、雑誌の「鎮静化（stabilize）」とほぼ同じ意味だと言えます。日銀の黒田総裁も「円安が穏やかであれば、円安は日本経済にとってプラス」と繰り返し述べています。 つまり、論文の主旨は、為替介入の目的が、変動（円高傾向や円安傾向）をストップさせたり逆方向へ転換させたりすることではなく、急激な変化をゆるやかにすることを目指している場合、その成功率はかなり高い、ということですが、日本の為替介入目的もまさにそれに合致するわけです。 ところで、今回の日本の為替介入は、その意味で、いまのところ成功していると言っていいと思います。大型介入直前９月２１日では１ドルあたり１４４.３１円でしたが、現在（１０月３０日）は１４７.４５円です。この４０日間に３.１４円（２.１％）安になっています。介入前の４０日間の変動はというと、８月１０日では１ドルあたり１３２.８３円でしたが、それが４０日後には１４４.３１円になっています。その４０日間では１１.８４円（８.６％）安になっています。つまり、介入後の円安幅は介入前と比べて、１１.８４円（８.６％）から３.１４円（２.１％）へと、かなり抑えられている結果（ほぼ４分の１）となっています。

repeated intervention steps will likely keep it that way for a while, in part by inducing two-way volatility into dollar/yen

 Friday’s intervention, which policy sources confirmed, came as the dollar hit a fresh 32-year high of 151.94 yen and triggered a rally of more than 7 yen for the Japanese currency to 144.50 per dollar.

That was the second confirmed instance of Japanese intervention, although traders suspect the BOJ had stepped in on other occasions in the past month to shore up a currency that has tumbled 22% this year against the dollar.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs said the intervention helps the BOJ limit yen depreciation and gives it time on its ultra-low interest rates’ policy, which is at odds with a global wave of tightening and has widened the gap between U.S. and Japanese interest rates.

“The yen’s beta to U.S. rates has fallen since the first intervention operation, and repeated intervention steps will likely keep it that way for a while, in part by inducing two-way volatility into dollar/yen,” Goldman wrote last week. “While sub-optimal and unsustainable in the medium term, we think this policy mix could be in place for some time.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/24/forex-markets-currencies-japan-yen-bank-of-japan-intervention.html

健康運動としての農業：重労働からの解放

耕作放棄地と人口減少は耕作地の広大化が農業の非効率化（非重労働）を可能にする。

農業の非効率化とは、弥生文化の縄文化（そこに出来るものを拾って食べる）。

過保護野菜を野生化する。

A good news is that the suicide rate in Japan has been declining. A bad news is that it is increasing in USA.

 

A good news is that the suicide rate in Japan has been declining. A bad news is that it is increasing in USA.

Suicide Rate in History: Japan vs USA (Per 100,000 population)

2009: 24.9 vs 12.8

2010: 24.1 vs 13.1

2011: 23.4 vs 13.4

2012: 21.6 vs 13.5

2013: 21.4 vs 13.5

2014: 20.1 vs 14.0

2015: 19.1 vs 14.4

2016: 17.5 vs 15.1

2017: 17.0 vs 15.9

2018: 16.7 vs 15.7

2019: 15.3 vs 16.1

(https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.STA.SUIC.P5?locations=JP-US)

 

2022 Suicide Rate World Ranking (Per 100,000 Population)

01 Lesotho  72.4

02 Guyana  40.3

03 Eswatini  29.4

04 South Korea  28.6

05 Kiribati  28.3

06 Micronesia 28.2

07 Lithuania 26.0

08 Suriname 25.4

09 Russia 25.1

10 South Africa 23.5

11 Ukraine 21.6

12 Belarus 21.2

…

17 Belgium 18.3

23 United States 16.1

25 Japan 15.3

26 Finland 15.3

28 Sweden 14.7

31 Austria 14.6

33 Switzerland 14.5

36 France 13.8

38 India 12.7

40 Australia 12.5

41 Germany 12.3

日本は自由民主主義の社会であり続けてほしい。不快な言動ができるだけ許容される社会であり続けてほしい。

 国家が宗教を管理し始めると中国のような国に一歩近づいてしまうんじゃないのか。それが今回の統一教会問題でぼくがもっとも心配していることです。ぼくは、統一教会が社会にもたらす災いなどより、国家による宗教や思想の統制の方がはるかに大きな災いを人類にもたらすと思っています。

自由とはそもそも「だれにとっても喜ばしいもの」ではない。自由とはむしろ逆に「わずわらしいこと（たとえば今回の統一教会の教義や活動）でもできるだけ許容されていること」に他ならない。なぜなら、個人個人の価値観は一致することはなく、一人の喜ばしいことは同時に他人にとって不快なことが多々あるからです。つまり、自分ができるだけ自由な言動を楽しむことができるためには、自分によって起こされる不快な言動が出来るだけ許容されている社会であることが必要なわけです。 ところが、中国のような社会主義の国家では、国家が国民にとって何が正しいかを決定します。それが国家の責任だと思っている。国民がその権利を放棄して国家権力にその判断をゆだねてしまっている。だから、中国のような社会では、宗教や思想の自由は「反社会的」なものとして、いとも簡単に否定されてしまう。（共産党や立憲民主党が今回の統一教会問題に熱心なのは同じ社会主義思想が根底にあるからだと思っています。社会が個人をコントロールすることに対するブレーキが欠如している。善意からフルスピードでコントロールする。） 日本にはそんな国家になってほしくはない。日本は自由民主主義の社会であり続けてほしい。不快な言動ができるだけ許容される社会であり続けてほしい。 「心の怒りを断ち、おもての怒りを棄てて、他人が自分と違うことに対して怒りをもってはならない。人はそれぞれ心に想うところがあるのであり、他人が良いと思うことを自分は悪いと思ったり、自分が良いと思っても、他人はそれを悪いと思ったりするものである。自分だけが聖人で他人は愚人である、ということはない。人は皆な賢愚合わせ持つ凡夫にすぎない。（聖徳太子　十七条憲法　第十条）」

SCHOOL OF LAW 114th Diploma Ceremony 2021 FORDHAM UNIVERSITY

 https://www.fordham.edu/download/downloads/id/15568/DiplomaCeremony_2021_virtual_program.pdf

日本においては、自由を守ることができるのはその自由を取り上げられる少数派側の本人たちしかいない。

 宗教や思想の自由は大切だと自分は思うので、ぼくらの側から見て、どんなにへんてこりんに見えたとしても、かれらのその権利は守らなければならないとぼくはおもっている。かれらが、自分たちは悪いことをしてないと信じているなら、まあがんばれ、という以外にない。

日本においては、自由と民主主義をみずから勝ち取ったという歴史がないので、一般人はもとより、政治家や弁護士や報道関係者でも、自由の本当の大切さを理解できるものはほとんどいない、とぼくは思っている。「常識を外れている」とか「家族が反対している」とかという理由で、日本人がいともかんたんに他人の自由を奪うことができると思い込むのも、日本には自由や民主主義のために血を流した歴史がないからだろう、とぼくはおもっている。 だから、日本においては、自由を守ることができるのはその自由を取り上げられるかもしれない少数派側の本人たちしかいない。日本では自由のために戦う弁護士やジャーナリストなどいない。かれらは孤立無援だ。その意味でも、かれらには、がんばれ、という以外にない。そうすれば、もしかしたら、「自由」が日本においても単なる教科書に出てくる言葉以上のものになるかもしれない。

Japan's imports, exports balloon on energy costs, cheap yen

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/japans-imports-exports-balloon-energy-costs-cheap-yen-91779535

 

TOKYO -- Japan marked a trade deficit for the 14th month in a row, government data showed Thursday, with exports and imports ballooning to record highs, as the declining value of the yen added to the soaring costs of imported energy, food and other goods.

Imports totaled 10.9 trillion yen ($72.7 billion) in September, according to the Finance Ministry, up nearly 46% from the same month a year ago on the back of rising oil and gas costs.

Imports have grown for 20 months straight on-year. But import costs were lower than the previous month’s, indicating some commodity prices have begun to stabilize.

Exports totaled 8.8 trillion yen ($58.7 billion), with the strongest growth in autos and steel. It was the 20th straight month of year on year monthly gains.

The Japanese yen has weakened drastically as the Bank of Japan maintains its negative interest rate policy, to keep economic activity going, while the U.S. Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy to combat growing inflation pressures.

Experts say that rate difference leads to a weaker yen. But the Bank of Japan has said Japan’s inflation is not as serious as the problem in the U.S. and some other nations. Until recently, Japan has instead been striving to keep deflation, or falling prices, at bay.

The war in Ukraine and other global factors have set off the recent steep rise in energy costs. Japan imports almost all its oil.

In the past, the weak yen has been a boon for Japan’s giant exporters, like Toyota and Nintendo, by raising the value of overseas earnings when converted in yen.

But the perk has gradually diminished, hurting consumers and businesses that must pay higher prices for food, energy, raw materials and other necessities.

Japanese government leaders have indicated they might act to try to stem volatility in exchange rates as the yen has continued to slide, falling to about 150 yen to the dollar, or a fresh 32-year low.

Japan’s exports of computer chips were also strong, underpinned by strong demand from China, Makino said.

———

Yuri Kageyama is on Twitter https://twitter.com/yurikageyama

Trump knew voter fraud claims were wrong, federal judge says as he orders John Eastman emails turned over

https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/19/politics/eastman-house-trump-documents/index.html

CNN — 

A federal judge on Wednesday ordered the release of emails from John Eastman, a former Donald Trump attorney, to House investigators, saying the communications were made in furtherance of a crime related to Trump’s efforts to subvert the 2020 election.

“The emails show that President Trump knew that the specific numbers of voter fraud were wrong but continued to tout those numbers, both in court and to the public,” Judge David O. Carter wrote.

“The Court finds that these emails are sufficiently related to and in furtherance of a conspiracy to defraud the United States,” he added.

Carter, who sits on the federal district court in central California, already released many of Eastman’s emails from around January 2021 to the House select committee investigating the US Capitol attack, but the two sides were still arguing over 562 additional documents from Eastman’s Chapman University email account.

For eight of the 500-plus Eastman documents the judge was examining, the judge said that the materials could be released because they fit in the so-called crime-fraud exception, which allows disclosure of otherwise privileged materials if the communications were related to or in furtherance of illegal or fraudulent conduct.

Four of the documents were from email threads discussing prospective election litigation. In them, Carter wrote, “Dr. Eastman and other attorneys suggest that – irrespective of the merits – the primary goal of filing is to delay or otherwise disrupt the January 6 vote.”

Carter’s new order cited one email where Trump’s attorneys state that “merely having this case pending in the Supreme Court, and not ruled on, may be enough to delay consideration of Georgia.”

“This email, read in context with other documents in this review, make clear that President Trump filed certain lawsuits not to obtain legal relief, but to disrupt or delay the January 6 congressional proceedings through the courts,” the ruling stated.

“The Court finds that these four documents are sufficiently related to and in furtherance of the obstruction crime,” it adds.

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CNN has reached out to representatives for Trump and Eastman for comment.

Four other emails that the judge is ordering disclosed “demonstrate an effort by President Trump and his attorneys to press false claims in federal court for the purpose of delaying the January 6 vote.” Carter pointed to litigation that Trump filed challenging the election results in Georgia. The judge went on to cite a December 2020 email where Eastman said that Trump had been made aware that some of the allegations made in a early December state court election challenge were inaccurate.

According to Carter, Eastman wrote in the December 30, 2020, email: “Although the President signed a verification for [the state court filing] back on Dec. 1, he has since been made aware that some of the allegations (and evidence proffered by the experts) has been inaccurate. For him to sign a new verification with that knowledge (and incorporation by reference) would not be accurate.”

Yet Trump and his attorneys went on to file a federal lawsuit referencing the same inaccurate numbers, Carter said. The federal lawsuit Trump’s attorneys filed did not incorporate the numbers in the body of the complaint, but rather, the lawsuit included as an attachment the state court election challenge. Trump filed it, as Carter noted, without “rectifying, clarifying, or otherwise changing” the bogus fraud numbers.

The federal lawsuit filed by Trump also included that a footnote that Carter characterized as a Trump “attempt to disclaim his responsibility over the misleading allegations.” Trump said in the footnote he was only relying on the figures that that had been presented to him. “But, by his attorneys’ own admissions, the information provided to him was that the alleged voter fraud numbers were inaccurate,” Carter said Wednesday.

Carter’s findings that Trump and Eastman “knowingly” misrepresented voter fraud numbers in federal court will bolster the committee’s investigation into the former President’s election reversal gambits.

The committee has repeatedly argued that a core tenet of Trump’s plan to overturn the 2020 election results was to file frivolous lawsuits intended to delay certification of the results in key swing states. The judge’s ruling echoes that sentiment. The revelation of the emails also comes as the Justice Department as well as the local prosecutor in Atlanta have launched their own criminal probes looking at the 2020 election schemes.

Eastman must also hand over portions of materials related to his proposal for then-Vice President Mike Pence to disrupt certification of the 2020 election on January 6, 2021, the judge ordered Wednesday. Thirty-three documents were ordered disclosed in total, under the new order, which set a deadline for doing so for October 28.

Earlier this month, the committee argued that Eastman has been “consistently unreliable” as he’s tried to protect his communications from the ongoing probe and that the investigators should now get access to more emails from one of his work email accounts.

This story has been updated with additional details.

CNN’s Katelyn Polantz contributed to this report.

Rapid, one-sided yen fall negative for Japan economy: Bank of Japan chief

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2022/10/63b794d70a88-update1-rapid-one-sided-yen-fall-negative-for-japan-economy-boj-chief.html

 

The yen's rapid and one-sided depreciation is "negative" for the Japanese economy, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said Wednesday after the currency hit a fresh 32-year low versus the U.S. dollar.

Kuroda told a parliamentary session that the rapid weakening of the yen makes business planning difficult for Japanese companies and thus the government's intervention in September was "quite appropriate."

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda. (Kyodo)

"Currencies should move in a stable manner, reflecting economic and financial fundamentals," Kuroda told a session of the Budget Committee in the House of Councillors.

"The recent depreciation of the yen is rapid and one-sided. This type of yen weakness makes it difficult for companies to draw up business plans and raises uncertainty so it is negative for the economy and unfavorable," the BOJ chief said.

He also said, however, if the weakening of the yen is stable, it is a plus for the economy.

A weak yen is often welcomed by Japanese exporters as it boosts their overseas profits in yen terms. But it also inflates import costs for resource-poor Japan.

Market players see the widening interest rate gap between Japan and the United States as a cue to sell the low-yielding yen for the U.S. dollar, with the Federal Reserve expected to keep hiking rates.

In contrast, the BOJ has not budged over its stance of maintaining ultralow rates to support an economy that Kuroda has said is facing downward pressure from higher commodity prices.

"It's appropriate to maintain monetary easing to firmly support the economy and achieve our price stability target in a sustainable and stable manner, accompanied by wage growth," Kuroda said, repeating that the BOJ's policy is not designed to target foreign exchange rates.

The yen has fallen precipitously relative to the dollar, and has been recently trading in the 149 zone, surpassing the level that prompted Japanese authorities to intervene last month.

Caution about another yen-buying, dollar-selling intervention remains in the market as Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki has kept up his verbal warnings.

"We are carefully checking foreign exchange movements more frequently," Suzuki told reporters in the morning. "We are ready to take action based on our consistent view."

Suzuki has warned of "decisive" steps against excessive volatility in the currency market. In a parliamentary session on Tuesday, he said Japan stepped into the market in September as a decisive step.

The prospect of no immediate change in the BOJ's dovish tilt has prompted analysts to say it will be difficult to reverse the current trend unless the Fed becomes less aggressive in raising rates.

Kuroda has ruled out the possibility of a rate hike "for the time being," which he initially indicated would mean two to three years.

Asked to clarify his stance in parliament, Kuroda said he had "no intention at all" of preemptively affecting policy decisions to be made after his term as BOJ chief ends next April.

Fact Check-Preventing transmission never required for COVID vaccines’ initial approval; Pfizer vax did reduce transmission of early variants

 https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-pfizer-vaccine-transmission-idUSL1N31F20E

In the video, Roos then introduces the testimony clip showing himself first asking a person identified as J. Small of Pfizer for a “clear” yes or no answer to the question, “Was the Pfizer COVID vaccine tested for stopping transmission of the virus before it entered the market?”

Small responds, “No” and explains, “we had to really move at the speed of science to understand what is taking place in the market.”

The European Parliament Multimedia Centre makes a longer compilation of excerpts from the full hearing available online (here). The hearing is identified as having taken place on Oct. 10, 2022, and included testimony from “Janine Small, President of Developed Markets, Pfizer.”

The hearing’s focus was the transparency of negotiations between Pfizer and the European Union over advance-purchase orders for 200 million vaccine doses that were placed before the vaccine had gained regulatory approval, according to Reuters reporting (here)

NOT REQUIRED, NOT PROMISED

In the video clip shared online, the Pfizer executive accurately states that studies of the vaccine’s effect on virus transmission from person to person were not performed during the original clinical trials of the company’s vaccine.

At the time governments were negotiating advance purchases of vaccine in 2020, the European Medicines Agency had already laid out requirements for an application for conditional marketing authorization of a COVID-19 vaccine, clinical trials were underway, and tests to show the vaccine prevented onward transmission were not required of any vaccine maker.

In a presentation later that year (here), the EMA listed vaccine benefits that clinical trials were intended to demonstrate (slide 8), which included only safety and at least 50% efficacy against “symptomatic disease” (here).

The same presentation slide describes “Other benefits likely uncertain at approval and only clearer after the vaccine is used” to include the vaccine’s “long term protection,” “prevention of infection (asymptomatic cases),” and “prevention of virus transmission in the community - needs specific studies post-approval necessary to show.”

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration laid out similar expectations for vaccine trials in June of 2020, and did not require data regarding the effect on virus transmission. (here)

A Pfizer spokesperson confirmed to Reuters Fact Check that the company was not asked by regulators to assess the transmission question in the original trials of the vaccine (known as BNT162b2 while in development and later marketed as Comirnaty).

“Our landmark phase 3 clinical trial (protocol published November 2020) was designed and powered to evaluate efficacy of BNT162b2 to prevent disease caused by SARS-CoV2, including severe disease,” the spokesperson said in an email. “The pivotal BNT162b2 clinical trial met two critical endpoints including the efficacy end-point which is prevention of confirmed symptomatic COVID-19 infection and the secondary end-point was prevention of severe disease. The BNT162b2 trials were not designed to evaluate the vaccine’s effectiveness against transmission of SARS-CoV-2.”

A KNOWN UNKNOWN

As clinical trial data on vaccine efficacy against the main endpoints – symptomatic and severe disease -- began to be released in November 2020 (here), researchers and regulators made clear in public statements that the vaccines’ effect on virus transmission remained unknown (here).

The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine began rolling out immediately after receiving emergency use authorization in the U.S. on Dec. 11, 2020 and conditional marketing authorization in the EU on Dec. 21 (here).

In a summary of its vaccine assessment published on Dec. 21, 2020, the EMA states: “The impact of vaccination with Comirnaty on the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in the community is not yet known. It is not yet known how much vaccinated people may still be able to carry and spread the virus.” (here).

BioNTech also stated publicly at the time that answering the transmission question would require at least three to six more months of study, according to Reuters reporting (here).

Further undermining the idea that Pfizer “admitted” something in the recent hearing that was not already widely known, in January, 2021, Pfizer CEO David Bourla continued to state that the company did not know if the vaccine would prevent transmission. He told online news site The Journal that the preliminary data on transmission in the broader population were “encouraging” but that “This is not conclusive yet. We know that in animals, (there is) significant protection from transferring the virus…. We haven’t (proven that in) humans yet.” (here)

VACCINE DID REDUCE TRANSMISSION

Within months of the vaccine hitting the market, researchers in the UK (here) and Israel (here) began publishing studies suggesting that the Pfizer vaccine was reducing transmission of the virus.

In February 2021, for example, Israeli data (here) showed a sharp drop in infections among healthcare workers within 15-28 days of receiving the two-shot Pfizer vaccine series, indicating the vaccine was not just preventing symptomatic disease, but also preventing the virus from being passed from person to person.

“Whether it is 75 or 90 percent reduction doesn’t matter - it is a big drop in transmission,” Michal Linial, a professor of molecular biology and bioinformatics at Jerusalem’s Hebrew University, told Reuters at the time. “It means that not only is the individual vaccinated protected, the inoculation also provides protection to his or her surroundings” (here)

Evidence continued to build in 2021 that the mRNA-based vaccines prevented infections and onward transmission of the virus (here). But with the advent that year of the coronavirus Delta variant, plus waning immunity from vaccines delivered at the start of the year, protection against infection and transmission was seen to be dropping, although not eliminated, as previously described by Reuters Fact Check (here).

The newest family of Omicron variants has further eroded vaccine effectiveness against infection and transmission (here) . But even Omicron does not escape vaccine protection completely.

A recent study in U.S. prisons, for example, found that vaccinated people who experience an Omicron breakthrough infection still have lower odds of passing the virus to their contacts (here). The protection was seen to start waning quickly, though, the journal Nature reported: “For every 5 weeks that passed since a person’s last vaccine dose, the risk of transmitting the infection to a close contact increased by 6%” (here)

Rob Roos told Reuters in an email that his tweet was not making a point about Pfizer: “My message isn’t about Pfizer at all. My message is about governments using a misleading argument to infringe on fundamental rights. Governments worldwide have introduced COVID mandates and passports that had an enormous impact on millions of people. They did so by explicitly arguing that vaccinated people cause less transmission of the virus. Ms. Small’s response to my question proves this was an assumption by governments for which no evidence had been provided.”

Updated Oct. 17 to add statement by Rob Roos.

VERDICT

Misleading. Social media posts claiming that a Pfizer executive “admitted” the company did not test its COVID vaccine’s ability to prevent virus transmission before receiving marketing approval imply that the company had been required to do so or claimed to have done so, which is false. National policies requiring vaccination to access public spaces or to enter a country that were implemented in early 2021 may have been based in part on data emerging at that time showing the vaccine did, in fact, prevent transmission of the variants then circulating.

This article was produced by the Reuters Fact Check team. Read more about our work to fact-check social media posts here .